📊 Economy: Recovering but uneven
Growth: modest expansion
Main theme: resilient labor market vs. persistent inflation risk
👷 Jobs Market
+87,800 jobs added (May)
Unemployment: 6.6% (down)
Gains led by:
Healthcare
Public sector
Services
👉 Interpretation:
Labor market is stronger than expected
💸 Inflation Pressure
Inflation still above ideal target range in key components
Drivers:
Energy prices
Wage growth (~3%+)
Housing costs remain elevated
👉 Interpretation:
Inflation is cooling slowly, not suddenly
🏦 Bank of Canada Policy
Policy rate: ~2.25% Bank of Canada
Stance: wait-and-see
No urgent cuts due to:
strong jobs data
sticky inflation
👉 Direction:
Rates likely stay steady longer
📉 Markets Reaction
Bond yields slightly higher
Stocks mixed to weaker
Rate-cut expectations reduced
👉 Interpretation:
Good economic data = less policy easing expected
🧭 Key Takeaways:
Canada is not in recession
But also not in smooth disinflation
Core tension:
Mixed sentiment ✔️
Sticky inflation ❗
High rates continuing ⏳
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